There was a bit of discussion about piracy on the Indiegames Blog. People asked me to post my own data regarding piracy's affect on sales, but I do this with some reluctance because it may come off as whining. I don't mean this entry in that way at all. I am just trying to present this stuff objectively, because data about this stuff isn't very common (many people aren't comfortable being as open about their sales and conversion rate and all that).
Okay, in this thread you can read the download numbers, number of sales, and conversion rate (percent of sales per demo download -- so 1 sale from 100 downloads would be a 1% conversion rate).
Immortal Defense was released in June of 2007, so it's been on sale for two years now. Despite that, there was no actual torrent of the full game until the end of January, 2009, because it's kind of an obscure game. It was still pirated via megaupload and rapidshare links, but those I could take down when I saw them via a single email, whereas you can't really take down torrents, and they're easier to use for most people.
Here's the conversion rate data for every month of the game's release so far (the full data for sales numbers and download numbers per month can be found in the aforementioned thread but is excluded for readability here):
aug 2007: 1.8%
sept 2007: 1.3%
oct 2007: 1.1%
nov 2007: 0.4%
dec 2007: 0.5%
jan 2008: 0.975%
feb 2008: 0.64%
mar 2008: 0.4%
apr 2008: 0.35%
may 2008: 0.375%
june 2008: 0.57%
july 2008: 0.6%
aug 2008: 0.8%
sept 2008: 0.3%
oct 2008: 1.5% *
nov 2008: 3.75%
dec 2008: 1.9%
jan 2009: 2.25%
feb 2009: 0.667% **
mar 2009: 0.85%
apr 2009: 0.56%
* October 2008 was the release of v1.1, which improved the game quite a bit, and the new demo now included a nag screen at the end which asked them to buy the game and provided a link to my site, and was also when I lowered the price from $23 to $15.
** February 2009 was when the first working torrent of the full game came out.
Okay, the above is the data, the rest can only be interpretations. The conversion rate is jumpy, and not predictable. For me it varied between 0.3% at its lowest and 3.75% at its highest, a more than tenfold difference. Because it fluctuates randomly so much, conclusions about what affects it are necessarily suspect. But it can still be put in roughly four groups (as I did above) which are somewhat similar in their average values. So two interpretations I have are:
1) The v1.1 drastically improved the conversion rate: lowering the price and providing a link to the site from the game itself seemed to greatly improve the percent of people who bought the game.
2) The release of a torrent of the game seemed to decrease the average conversion rate back to pre-v1.1 levels.
3) I don't know what caused the original drop (the first three months had a relatively high conversion rate, followed by a long time of relatively low conversion rate); it could just be related to those months being the first release of a game and the reviews of the game, which mostly appeared around that time.
Those are just interpretations though, I'm not positive the new release and price change in v1.1 was actually responsible for the improved conversion rate, it could just be chance; similarly it could just be chance that the conversion rate happened to go down so much when the torrent of the game was released. It's just speculation, but since data about this is lacking I thought I'd put this data out there.
How can I help?
I have not detected any pirated versions on the usual suspect sites lately. Is there a way I can get torrent stuff removed?
- Newy
maybe if you buy the world.
maybe if you buy the world.
what about actual sales?
To see the effects better, it would be good to see actual sales, not just percentages. Have actual sales dropped too or just the conversion rate?
"2) The release of a torrent
"2) The release of a torrent of the game seemed to decrease the average conversion rate back to pre-v1.1 levels."
That doesn't seem like a logical conclusion since a spike then drop matches the pattern when released originally. Why would the conversion rate have been constantly higher?
If you have a flat line with spikes in, it's the spikes you need explanations for, which you have. Becoming flat again has made no overall difference. It's certainly not lower than the average rate.
Dubious correlation between the torrent and the conversion rate
Drawing a conclusion from the arrival of the torrent version and the conversion rate drop seems dubious at best because your conversion rate is based upon downloads of the DEMO version of the game. Those who download the torrent version of the game aren't going to bother downloading the demo version because they don't need it. Therefore the torrrent downloads aren't going to have any significant effect on your conversion rate because those downloads don't count towards it. Anyone who downloads the demo version at this point simply is either unaware of the torrent version or chooses not to participate in piracy.
Equally dubious denial of correlation
"Those who download the torrent version of the game aren't going to bother downloading the demo version because they don't need it"
you are assuming someone who is capable of and willing to use the torrented version of the game will not download a demo first. especially with a non-mainstream game, it wouldn't occur to me to check for a torrent of the game straight off the bat. I don't think you can assume that noone who downloaded a torrent and would have paid had not downloaded the demo first.
of course, I don't _know_ that. neither do you. as the OP said, nothing you can make of the data can be anything more than speculation
yeah, i think it's always
yeah, i think it's always possible someone just plays the demo, wants to buy the game but realizes they can't afford it right now, and then pirates it -- that's possible, i've done the same thing in the past.
and again, i'm not claiming a correlation, i'm just saying the data can be interpreted in that way (and in many other ways)
can you help me in writng a script, a code, and variables
hi, i've got the lite version of game maker, eventhought, i am not finding great problems in creating "very simple games like pacman"
but i read your peace of suggsessions in your blog and i loved it.
so, i was thinking whether you can send me a more complex games created with game maker lite v. with scripts, codes and variables.
and if it is possible, make some explications.
my e-mail is : [ email edited out to prevent spam :) ]
please, i'm looking for hearing from you.
any way, it was a honor to communicate with you, because people who looks to create their own games or what ever else, not spending 70$ in a stuped game and comes home happy for their glorious sucsess.
thank you.
and please if it a public server, poeple who read this comment, don't make me change my e-mail.
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